Summary
Beijing has taken significant steps to deepen control over rare earth production while the U.S. and EU accelerate funding and policies to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains.
Key Points
• China quietly issued its 2025 rare earth mining and smelting quotas, granting them only to China Rare Earth Group and China Northern Rare Earth Group, consolidating state control. Source
• China pledged stricter enforcement against smuggling of gallium, germanium, tungsten, and rare earths. Source
• The U.S. Department of Defense agreed to back MP Materials, guaranteeing a $110/kg NdPr price floor and taking a 15% equity stake to expand U.S. magnet production. Source
• Lynas Rare Earths expects higher prices and stronger investor interest as U.S. support for MP Materials reshapes global pricing dynamics. Source
Why It Matters
• China continues to act as the global price setter for rare earths, increasing supply risk.
• U.S. and EU price support policies mark a structural shift toward non‑China supply.
• Western producers stand to benefit from higher, stable prices and stronger investor confidence.
Watchlist Companies
• MP Materials – Only U.S. rare earth miner, now supported by DoD price guarantees and equity financing.
• Lynas Rare Earths – Australia-based producer poised to benefit from ex-China pricing power and increased demand.
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Neodymium / Praseodymium – High-strength magnets for EVs, turbines, and defense systems
Dysprosium / Terbium – Heavy rare earths essential for high-performance motors and military applications
Action Points
• Track China’s quota announcements and enforcement patterns for strategic minerals.
• Monitor MP Materials’ magnet facility ramp-up and related DoD procurement contracts.
• Watch for Lynas and Neo Performance Materials updates on pricing and production expansion.
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Informational purposes only and is not financial or legal advice. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.
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