The critical minerals space is heating up with new shifting levers of control. Perpetua Resources is in talks for U.S. antimony refining partnerships, seeking to break China’s export chokehold. Copper markets remain under pressure after Freeport’s Grasberg mine closure. The G7’s rare earth price floor discussions are gaining renewed urgency. And the U.S. is pushing to gain equity in key lithium assets, reinforcing the trend of government intervention in strategic minerals.
Key Points
Perpetua Pursues U.S. Antimony Refining Partnerships
Perpetua Resources (Idaho, U.S.) is engaged in discussions with Glencore, Trafigura, Clarios, and Sunshine Silver to establish refining capacity for antimony in the U.S., following China’s export curbs.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/perpetua-resources-talks-with-glencore-others-us-antimony-processing-2025-09-26/ ReutersGrasberg Mine Closure Continues to Distort Copper Supply
Freeport Indonesia’s suspension of operations at Grasberg due to safety and mudflow issues is deepening supply anxieties. Copper prices have surged in response.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mining-freeport-halted-search-trapped-miners-indonesia-mining-minister-says-2025-09-26/ ReutersG7 Moves on Rare Earth Price Controls Intensify
G7 nations and the EU are actively considering price floors, export taxes, or reciprocal procurement requirements to counterbalance China’s dominance in rare earths. Canada is reportedly supportive.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/g7-weighs-price-floors-rare-earths-counter-chinas-dominance-sources-say-2025-09-24/ ReutersU.S. Eyes Equity Stake in Lithium Americas / Thacker Pass
The U.S. government is negotiating to take a 5–10% equity stake in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project, aligning with negotiations around a US$2.26B DOE loan.
https://www.ft.com/content/dcc53d5f-be19-4c34-a2ca-cbde9b5126dd Financial Times
Why It Matters
Vertical Control as Strategic Leverage
Perpetua’s antimony refining push underlines how refining is becoming a contested frontier—governments and firms want not just output but control over key midstream nodes.Copper’s Structural Stress Deepens
Grasberg’s disruption reinforces that supply shocks now have lasting ripple effects beyond near-term pricing—they recast production baselines and capital allocation expectations.Strategic Pricing Tools Are Emerging
G7 price control proposals represent a shift: supply security is being pursued through coordinated policy tools, not just private investment.State Equity Is a New Norm
The move toward government equity in critical mining assets is normalizing, especially in lithium and rare earths. Fiscal policy and industrial strategy are colliding.
Watchlist Companies & Entities
Perpetua Resources Inc.
U.S. antimony and gold developer seeking strategic refining partnerships.
Homepage: https://www.perpetuaresources.comFreeport‑McMoRan / Grasberg Mine
Key copper/gold producer; its operational fate is central to copper market balance.
Homepage: https://www.freeport-mcmoran.com (check domain for accuracy)Lithium Americas / Thacker Pass Project
North American lithium developer at the center of U.S. equity stake talks.
Homepage: https://www.lithiumamericas.comG7 / Multinational Rare Earth Task Force
Policymaking consortium shaping rare earth pricing, trade, and supply coordination.
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Antimony — Critical for flame retardants, energy, and defense; refining is concentrated and strategically constrained.
Copper — Continues as a core strategic metal; supply disruptions exacerbate deficits already under pressure.
Rare Earths — Price floors, export taxes, and procurement policy are evolving tools in the supply security toolkit.
Lithium — The front line in the battle over state involvement, equity, and financing in the battery supply chain.
Action Points
Monitor outcome of Perpetua’s refining partnership talks—who invests, terms, and location of refining capacity.
Track Freeport’s upheaval: whether Grasberg reopens, how quickly, and how capital is reallocated by copper majors.
Watch G7 rare earth policy momentum—whether price floors become binding, how China reacts, and who is included.
Follow U.S. equity negotiations in Thacker Pass: governance, dilution, rights, and precedent for future deals.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.