Summary
Tight copper supply, expanding recycling capacity, and emerging rare earth consolidation are converging this week. Goldman Sachs revised global copper forecasts downward following the Grasberg mine disruption. Aurubis launched a major U.S. copper recycling operation to mitigate supply gaps. In Quebec, Quebec Rare Earth Elements (QREE) continues to develop local rare earth projects. Across the globe, grid buildouts and data center expansion are driving structural copper demand upward. These developments reinforce how both primary production and circular flows will define mineral security in coming years.
Key Points
Goldman Cuts Copper Supply Outlook after Grasberg Disruption
Goldman Sachs trimmed global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in response to the prolonged disruption at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/goldman-sachs-downgrades-copper-supply-forecast-after-grasberg-mine-disruption-2025-09-25/Aurubis Starts U.S. Copper Recycling Plant
Aurubis AG launched a new plant in Richmond, Georgia capable of processing up to 180,000 tonnes of copper-containing waste annually—supporting supply resilience via circular pathways.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/aurubis-starts-production-us-copper-recycling-plant-2025-09-24/QREE (Quebec Rare Earth Elements) Advances Local REE Exploration
Quebec Rare Earth Elements maintains momentum, developing exploration projects in Quebec (Saguenay, Lynx, Carcajou) and preparing for regional REE roles.
https://qree.ca/Global Grid & Data Center Buildouts Drive Copper Demand
Consultants estimate that by 2030, power grid expansion and AI infrastructure will push copper demand conditions into structural growth territory.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/global-power-grid-expansion-fuels-fresh-copper-demand-surge-2025-07-31/China’s Refined Copper Output to Hit Record High in 2025
China is projected to boost its refined copper output between 7.5% and 12%, reinforcing its dominant role in the global smelting sector despite concentrate constraints.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-2025-copper-output-set-hit-record-high-despite-feedstock-shortages-2025-08-01/
Why It Matters
Supply Shock Persistence
Disruptions like Grasberg continue to ripple through forecasts, rebalancing assumptions about surplus/deficit dynamics across base metals.Recycling as Strategic Buffer
Aurubis’ move underscores how recycling will shift from niche to essential—supporting margins and supply if primary sources falter.Quebec’s Rare Earth Options
QREE’s local activity highlights Quebec’s latent REE potential—strategic if separation, processing, or magnet downstream capacity materializes.Demand Is Structural, Not Cyclical
Grid expansion, data infrastructure, and AI require copper not just as a commodity but as a structural input, tightening supply stress over time.China’s Squeeze Intensifies
Even with concentrate imports tight, China’s smelter expansion underscores its ability to absorb scrap and secondary flows, keeping refined markets under pressure.
Watchlist Companies & Entities
Goldman Sachs – Commodities / Metals Team
Their revised supply forecasts influence investor behavior, hedging strategies, and policy signaling.Aurubis AG
European copper leader now diversifying into U.S. recycling capacity.
https://www.aurubis.comQREE – Quebec Rare Earth Elements Corp.
Junior REE explorer in Quebec, targeting development of local rare earth resources.
https://qree.caMajor Copper Producers / Smelters (e.g. Freeport, Codelco, Glencore)
Watch their operational status, concentrate allocations, and output guidance amid tightened supply.
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Copper — Core to electrification, AI, grid, and infrastructure. Supply disruptions now amplify future deficits.
Rare Earth Elements (REEs) — Québec’s REE exploration could provide localized supply for North American magnet chains if scaling and processing follow.
Recycled Copper / Secondary Supply — Increasingly vital as buffer against the volatility of primary mining.
Action Points
Monitor subsequent revisions to copper supply forecasts across major banks and analysts.
Track Aurubis’ plant throughput, input sourcing, and expansion plans for reciclation scale.
Follow QREE’s exploration updates: drill results, resource estimates, permitting, and partner interest.
Project forward grids + AI infrastructure demand curves to estimate copper consumption stress points.
Watch China’s smelter and recycling strategies—how aggressively they replace concentrate imports.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.