Summary
Global mining markets are reeling from new supply constraints, policy incentives, and operational disruptions. Goldman Sachs has cut copper supply forecasts after the Grasberg mine disruption. Argentina approved McEwen’s Los Azules copper project under a generous tax break program. Meanwhile, DR Congo reaffirms its cobalt export quota strategy. In Indonesia, operations at Freeport’s Grasberg mine remain halted amid rescue efforts for trapped workers — pushing markets to reprice risk across base metals.
Key Points
Goldman Revises Down Copper Supply Outlook After Grasberg Disruption
Goldman Sachs reduced its 2025 and 2026 global copper production forecasts by ~160,000 – 200,000 tonnes following the shutdown at Freeport’s Grasberg mine due to a mudflow, compounding supply concerns.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia/goldman-sachs-downgrades-copper-supply-forecast-after-grasberg-mine-disruption-2025-09-25/Argentina Green-Lights McEwen’s $2.7B Los Azules Copper Project for Tax Incentives
Argentina’s government approved McEwen Copper’s Los Azules project under its Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), granting favorable tax treatment. The project aims to produce cathode copper starting 2029, with projected high export value and job creation.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/argentina-approves-mcewens-27-billion-copper-project-tax-break-program-2025-09-26/DR Congo Maintains Cobalt Export Quotas, Focuses on Local Processing
DR Congo has signaled it will adhere to its new quota system for cobalt exports, rejecting calls for loosening the caps. The government is also pushing to increase in-country processing to capture more value domestically.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-sticking-cobalt-export-quotas-keen-to-boost-processing-2025-09-24/Freeport Halts Grasberg Operations as Rescue Mission Continues
Mining operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia have been suspended to focus on rescuing seven workers trapped after a mudflow. Freeport has declared force majeure; the disruption is amplifying global supply anxiety.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mining-freeport-halted-search-trapped-miners-indonesia-mining-minister-says-2025-09-26/
Why It Matters
Copper Tightness Intensifies
With major producers like Grasberg offline and supply forecasts slashed, the market is increasingly recognizing a structural supply squeeze — not a temporary glitch.Policy Levers Jump In
Argentina’s tax incentive signals that countries are aggressively courting large-scale projects to rebalance supply geography and attract capital into new mining zones.Value Capture via Processing
DRC’s insistence on processing domestically and imposing export quotas reflects a broader trend: raw commodity producers are pushing to retain downstream value chains rather than just selling ore.Operational Risk on Display
The Freeport shutdown highlights how natural hazards, infrastructure fragility, and worker safety events can cascade into supply shocks across metal markets.
Watchlist Companies & Entities
Freeport‑McMoRan / Grasberg Operation
Major copper/gold producer. Its operational status post-mudflow will influence global copper flows.
Homepage: https://www.freeport⎯mcmoran.com (Note: ensure correct domain formatting)McEwen Copper
Canadian-linked miner behind Los Azules. Beneficiary of Argentina’s tax regime for copper development.
Homepage: https://www.mcewencopper.com (or via parent McEwen Mining)DR Congo Government / Cobalt Authority
Administering cobalt quotas, shaping export and processing policy.Goldman Sachs Commodities
Its revised supply models influence capital flows, hedger sentiment, and market pricing.
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Copper — Remains the linchpin of the energy transition, electronics, infrastructure, and defense systems. Supply disruptions have wide ripple effects.
Cobalt — Essential for battery chemistries; export constraints and quota regimes could tighten supply and push pricing premiums upward.
Local Processing vs Export — The push to capture more downstream value is playing out in countries like DR Congo and Argentina, shifting the paradigm from raw resource exporting to value-chain participation.
Action Points
Watch for news about Grasberg’s rescue outcomes, restart timeline, and permanent damage assessments.
Monitor production guidance revisions from global copper miners as they digest the supply shock.
Track investment flows toward McEwen’s Los Azules — capital markets, offtake deals, engineering contracts.
Assess how cobalt quota allocations in DRC are being awarded: to which firms, under what conditions, and what processing obligations are attached.
Revise copper and battery metal balance sheets and pricing models to reflect the new supply constraints and geopolitical risk premia.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.