Strategic Summary
The global critical minerals map is reshaping fast. India has entered rare-earth negotiations with Myanmar’s Kachin Independence Army (KIA) as China restricts exports. At the same time, CATL’s restart of its lithium mine in Jiangxi Province is shaking up global markets, triggering a major Australian equity sell-off. Meanwhile, in South Asia, a $500 million U.S.–Pakistan agreement signals the emergence of a new poly-metallic refining corridor. This triad of moves highlights the scramble to diversify, control, and scale critical mineral supply chains amid intensifying geopolitical pressure.
Key Points
India Courts Myanmar Rebel Group for Rare Earths
India is exploring a rare-earth supply agreement with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), a rebel group controlling mines in northern Myanmar. The Ministry of Mines has assigned Indian Rare Earths Ltd. (IREL) and Midwest Advanced Materials to collect and test ore samples, with processing options possibly routed through third countries.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-explores-rare-earth-deal-with-myanmar-rebels-after-chinese-curbs-2025-09-10/
CATL Restarts Jianxiawo Mine, $8B Lithium Sell-Off Follows
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) has resumed production at its lithium mine in Jiangxi, responsible for ~8% of global output. The news tanked lithium equities across Australia, with AUD 8.4 billion in value erased in a day. Market watchers warn this could depress near-term prices across the supply chain.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/8-billion-aussie-bloodbath-huge-china-move/news-story/127b92c30225cb08456ff277afdcc61d
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/catls-yichun-lithium-mine-expected-resume-production-soon-securities-times-reports-2025-09-09/
U.S. Strategic Metals Launches $500M Pakistan Refinery Deal
U.S. Strategic Metals signed a $500 million agreement with Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization (FWO) to build a poly-metallic refinery. The plant will process copper, antimony, gold, tungsten, and rare earths. The move establishes Pakistan as a new refining partner for U.S.-aligned mineral supply diversification.
https://apnews.com/article/78397bef33518d645a3a248275d84a0c
Why It Matters
Geopolitical Risk Meets Sourcing Creativity
India’s deal with Myanmar’s KIA reflects the risks nations are now willing to take to access rare earths—and the limits of traditional diplomacy in securing supply.
China’s Market Control is Still Potent
CATL’s mine restart and its immediate price effects show that China still commands global leverage in lithium markets—despite decoupling attempts elsewhere.
New Refining Corridors Are Forming
The U.S.–Pakistan project opens a new channel for allied critical mineral processing, reducing reliance on Chinese or Southeast Asian refiners and building regional capacity.
Watchlist Companies & Entities
Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL) — Government-owned rare-earths company overseeing the Myanmar sampling project.
https://www.irel.co.inMidwest Advanced Materials — Participating in India’s rare-earth evaluation with KIA (no official homepage found).
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) — China’s lithium battery and mining giant, driving price volatility.
https://www.catl.comU.S. Strategic Metals — U.S. company funding the $500M Pakistan refinery and expanding global critical minerals refining.
https://www.usstrategicmetals.comFrontier Works Organization (FWO) — Pakistan’s primary infrastructure and mineral development agency.
https://www.fwo.com.pk
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Rare Earths – India’s sourcing from Myanmar reflects growing urgency in magnet, motor, and defense-critical components.
Lithium – CATL’s restart reaffirms China’s role in pricing power; lithium remains essential for battery and energy storage infrastructure.
Copper, Antimony, Tungsten, Gold – Target metals in the U.S.–Pakistan deal; all are priority inputs for electrification, semiconductors, and defense.
Action Points
Track outcomes of India's Myanmar rare-earth tests and political implications of engagement with KIA.
Monitor global lithium price trends following CATL’s production update and investor reactions in battery supply chains.
Follow U.S.–Pakistan refinery milestones, including permitting, EPC contracts, and regional logistics development.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.