Summary
In a move that complicates supply-chain diversification efforts, Malaysia confirmed that it will continue banning exports of unprocessed rare-earth materials, despite executing a new cooperation agreement with the United States to secure strategic minerals. At the same time, Canada has taken the lead in forming a new G7 “Critical Minerals Production Alliance” aimed at reducing China’s dominance in rare‐earths and associated processing. Meanwhile, the developing truce between the U.S. and China is already rippling through markets — as supply fears ease, rare-earth/critical-minerals stocks are under renewed pressure.
Key Points
Malaysia upholds raw-rare-earths export ban despite U.S. cooperation deal: Malaysia’s Trade Minister stated that the country will not allow exports of cheap, unprocessed rare earths to remain its only revenue base. Instead, Malaysia is pushing for foreign investment and domestic processing capacity even as the U.S. moves to lock in access. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysias-ban-raw-rare-earths-exports-remains-despite-us-deal-trade-minister-says-2025-10-29/ Reuters
Canada leads G7 effort to loosen China’s hold on rare-earth supply chains: At the G7 Ministers’ meeting in Toronto this week, Canada launched a “Critical Minerals Production Alliance” to secure firm commitments from allied states — via offtake agreements, stockpiling mechanisms and mining-processing investments — aimed at reducing global dependence on China’s 60–90 % dominance. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/29/canada-g7-china-rare-earths-00628919 Politico
U.S.–China truce rewrites urgency in the REE sector, putting pressure on miners: A preliminary deal between the U.S. and China to pause new export controls and tariffs on critical minerals has triggered a sharp correction in REE developer stocks, as the “scarcity premium” begins reversing. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/rare-earth-miners-fall-after-us-china-truce-pause-tariffs-export-curbs-2025-10-27/ Reuters
Why It Matters
Chain-reaction effect on valuations — The market correction signals how heavily dependent the critical-minerals sector is on geopolitical headlines. A single diplomatic shift can erode the premium investors have assigned for supply-risk.
Processing vs. mining becomes the battleground — Malaysia’s stance reinforces that access to raw ore isn’t enough; value-added processing remains the key to supply-chain sovereignty. Countries that insist on raw-material exports without processing risk being bypassed.
Alliance building vs. Sino-dominance — The Canadian-led G7 initiative represents a concrete strategic pivot: rather than simply react to China’s dominance, allied states are establishing frameworks to invest, stockpile and partner — which could reshape funding, offtake and policy in the sector.
Watchlist Companies
Company / Entity | Context | Homepage / Link |
|---|---|---|
MP Materials (MP) | U.S. rare-earth miner whose valuation is highly sensitive to U.S.–China supply dynamics. | |
NioCorp Developments (NB) | U.S. developer whose strategic value is elevated in the shifting supply-chain narrative (niobium, scandium, REEs). | |
Nord Precious Metals (NTH) | Canadian company advancing a regional cobalt/nickel/silver processing hub — aligns with Canada’s policy shift. | |
Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) | Rare-earth & critical-minerals developer whose stock has been volatile as sentiment shifts. |
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Geopolitical Sentiment vs. Structural Deficit — As the U.S.–China truce evolves, the question becomes whether the underlying structural deficits (China’s processing dominance) will get addressed or merely deferred.
Processing Advantage — Malaysia’s refusal to export raw rare earths highlights that downstream processing (refining, magnet manufacturing) is the next chokepoint to watch.
Alliance Funding & Offtake Models — The G7 Production Alliance may trigger new offtake contracts, price-floors, stock-piling mechanisms and joint investment models: shifts that could benefit project developers prepared to align accordingly.
Action Points
Track the G7 Alliance deal announcements: monitor for which governments commit funding, which companies land offtakes and which projects get selected for processing build-out.
Assess miners/processors with a downstream focus: prioritise firms with value-added processing capability or partnerships, not just raw-material extraction.
Use the supply-risk dip as a tactical moment: manufacturers or supply-chain participants should evaluate locking in long-term contracts now before the scarcity premium possibly rebounds.
Monitor any reversal of Malaysia’s policy stance or similar export-control moves in other jurisdictions — a shift could signal a resurgence of supply premium risk.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at the time of publication; sources are publicly available.
444Critical is delivered daily from Trail, British Columbia — a city built on metallurgy, innovation and collaboration — now standing as the operational centre of the North American critical-minerals corridor.