444Critical Daily — October 28, 2025

The U.S. domestic supply push achieved further financial clarity as NioCorp Developments confirmed its efforts to secure $800 million in EXIM debt financing are progressing, a key milestone for its Nebraska critical minerals project. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Australia alliance is yielding concrete, high-value project targets: the newly announced Orion Critical Mineral Consortium (with its $5 billion target) will focus on near-production assets globally, and Australia has now designated a domestic heavy rare earth separation facility as a strategic priority. This renewed focus on project execution and cost control is essential for long-term survival, a point underscored by Sigma Lithium’s CEO emphasizing cost discipline in the volatile lithium market.

NioCorp Confirms Progress on $800M EXIM Debt Financing

NioCorp Developments Ltd. held a webcast updating investors on its Elk Creek Project. Management emphasized the $10 million Pentagon program (under the Defense Production Act, Title III) to partner with Lockheed Martin Skunk Works on developing prototype aluminum-scandium alloy components. They also confirmed that the project's application for up to $800 million in potential debt financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) is progressing, a massive loan that would cover the bulk of the required capital to build the fully-permitted facility.

Australia Designates Heavy REE Separation Facility as Strategic Priority

The Australian government confirmed that establishing a domestic heavy rare earth separation facility is a strategic priority under the U.S.-Australia Critical Minerals Framework. This focus on the high-value, high-risk separation capacity is designed to create a direct, secure source of defense-critical metals (Dysprosium and Terbium) for the U.S. industrial base, significantly reducing reliance on Chinese processing.

Sigma Lithium CEO Stresses Cost Control in Volatile Market

Sigma Lithium’s CEO, Ana Cabral, highlighted in a recent interview that maintaining cost discipline is the key to survival in the current lithium market. She noted that Sigma keeps its all-in costs below $600 per tonne, enabling it to navigate the severe price volatility that has plagued the sector. This cost-focused approach contrasts with many higher-cost producers who have had to delay expansions or raise dilutive capital to survive the recent market glut.

New U.S.-Abu Dhabi Fund Targets Near-Term Global Production

The newly formed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium (backed by the U.S. DFC and Abu Dhabi’s ADQ) has clarified its $5 billion investment strategy. The fund will specifically target projects that are already in production or can commence operations in the near term, explicitly avoiding early-stage exploration. This focus on speeding up supply delivery confirms the urgency of the U.S. strategic goal to inject capital into projects that can quickly supply lithium, cobalt, and rare earths to allied nations.

Project De-Risking Hits Peak Capital

The progression of NioCorp’s $800 million loan and the Perpetua equity raise demonstrates that Western governments and strategic partners are providing patient, non-dilutive capital at a scale previously unseen. This model is now the blueprint for any major critical mineral project attempting to overcome the initial hurdle of multi-billion dollar financing.

The Heavy REE Chokepoint is Next

Australia’s focus on heavy rare earth separation is a direct response to China’s expanded export controls. The establishment of this domestic processing capacity is a high-cost, high-risk, but strategically essential step that will create a direct source of defense-critical metals (Dy and Tb) for the U.S. defense industrial base.

Cost Control Defines Lithium Survival

The lithium market remains defined by the cost curve. Sigma's emphasis on low operating costs is the primary survival tactic against intentional Chinese dumping and market volatility. Producers with low-cost assets are best positioned to secure long-term offtake agreements and weather price downturns.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.