Summary
The geopolitical weaponization of critical minerals has escalated sharply, moving from raw materials to sophisticated components. China has implemented its most extensive export controls yet, covering rare earth elements, associated technologies, and foreign-produced goods containing Chinese materials. This directly threatens global high-tech manufacturing, particularly for permanent magnets. Meanwhile, the strategic metal Tungsten has quietly surged, with prices nearly doubling year-to-date due to Chinese quota cuts and unexpected demand from the defense sector. In North America, new supply is coming online: Saskatchewan is poised to restart copper and zinc production after a two-decade hiatus, underscoring allied efforts to fast-track resource independence.
Key Points
China Extends Export Controls to Magnet Technology and Foreign Goods
China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has implemented its most comprehensive restrictions to date (effective Oct 9, 2025), expanding controls beyond raw Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to cover: associated mining and processing equipment, technologies, and foreign-produced items containing as little as 0.1% Chinese-origin REEs. This extraterritorial reach directly targets the global permanent magnet supply chain (critical for EVs, wind turbines, and defense), forcing international manufacturers to comply with Beijing's licensing regime for a vast array of high-value goods.
Tungsten Prices Surge 90% as Defense Demand and Chinese Quotas Tighten Supply
The price of Ammonium Paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten product, has surged by over 90% year-to-date, driven by a perfect storm of supply and demand factors. On the supply side, China (83% of global output) cut its 2025 mining quotas, while demand has unexpectedly spiked from both the solar sector (tungsten wire in wafer cutting) and the defense sector (armaments and cutting tools). The EU has responded by launching a 100,000-tonne strategic tungsten reserve, with initial purchases expected to consume 15-20% of the 2025 global circulating supply.
Saskatchewan Fast-Tracks New Copper and Zinc Production
Construction on Foran Mining Corporation’s McIlvenna Bay mine in Saskatchewan is now over 60% complete, with commercial production of copper, zinc, gold, and silver expected to begin in mid-2026. The $1 billion project, which aims to be Canada's first carbon-neutral copper mine, marks the restart of copper production in the province after two decades. The Saskatchewan government and Prime Minister Mark Carney have designated the mine as a strategic project to help meet goals for diversifying Canada's critical mineral output.
EU Battery Recycling Targets Enter Force Amid Circular Economy Push
New rules under the EU's Battery Regulation, establishing the methodology for calculating and verifying recycling efficiency and material recovery rates, entered into force in July 2025. This aims to secure critical materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel by ensuring that recyclers meet ambitious targets (e.g., 65% recycling efficiency for lithium-based batteries by the end of 2025). The policy creates a binding mandate for a circular economy, reducing Europe's reliance on primary material imports.
Why It Matters
The Chokepoint is Now Downstream
China's new export controls shift the geopolitical chokepoint from merely supplying raw materials to controlling high-value manufacturing technology (like magnet production) globally. EV and defense manufacturers must now either secure certified, non-Chinese magnet components or face severe licensing delays, higher costs, and compliance risks. This significantly raises the strategic importance and valuation of Western-allied magnet makers and processing facilities.
Tungsten: A Geopolitical Scarcity Trade
The tungsten price surge confirms that supply risk extends far beyond just battery metals. Tungsten's primary use in high-performance industrial and military applications makes it a non-negotiable defense input. The combination of Chinese quota cuts and strategic stockpiling by allies has fundamentally reset the price floor, locking in higher costs for sectors from aerospace to heavy machinery and emphasizing the need for diversification.
North American Copper is De-Risked by Policy
The fast-tracking and federal support for projects like McIlvenna Bay demonstrate that governments are willing to use policy and capital to directly address the looming global copper deficit. This dramatically lowers the project-execution risk for Canadian copper/zinc miners and supports the North American push to secure supply chains for the energy transition's most essential wiring material.
Watchlist Companies
Company / Entity | Context | Homepage / Link |
Foran Mining Corp. (FOM) | Developing the fast-tracked, carbon-neutral McIlvenna Bay copper-zinc mine in Saskatchewan. | |
MP Materials (MP) | U.S. rare earth miner; a direct long-term beneficiary of China’s new magnet and REE technology controls. | |
American Tungsten (TUNG) | Pure-play tungsten stock gaining investor attention as U.S. attempts to build domestic supply to counter China. | N/A (Canadian/OTC Exchange) |
Elemental Altus (ELE.V) | Tungsten and rare earth royalty company that recently secured major institutional financing for growth. | |
Lithium Americas (LAC) | Lithium producer; recycling mandates increase the long-term value of its material for circular supply chains. | |
Saskatchewan Research Council | Developing Canada's first large-scale REE processing facility, benefiting from increased demand for non-Chinese REEs. |
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Rare Earths / Magnets — New Chokepoint: China now controls not just the raw material, but the global manufacturing technology for magnets, directly impacting EV and defense systems.
Tungsten — Strategic Scarcity: A sharp price surge driven by Chinese quota cuts and defense sector demand confirms this niche metal as a critical (and highly volatile) geopolitical asset.
Copper / Zinc — Supply Assurance: New projects coming online in geopolitically stable allied nations, like Canada, represent a crucial step toward mitigating the global supply deficit.
Action Points
Magnet Supply Re-Audit: Manufacturing and defense firms must immediately assess their magnet suppliers for exposure to China's new technology controls. Accelerate qualification of non-Chinese magnet supply chains.
Hedge Tungsten Exposure: Industrial consumers of hard materials (mining, aerospace, construction) should review their hedging strategies for tungsten products, as supply-side pressure is expected to sustain elevated prices through 2026.
Track Canadian Infrastructure: Monitor infrastructure financing and permitting schedules for fast-tracked Canadian resource projects, as these represent the most de-risked new capacity in stable Western jurisdictions.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.