444Critical Daily — October 16, 2025

Global mineral supply chains are being reshaped by assertive state policies. Indonesia, the world's nickel giant, has further tightened its grip by mandating a shift from three-year to one-year production quotas, creating significant near-term supply uncertainty for battery manufacturers. Concurrently, the U.S. continues its massive domestic build-out for battery components, with Graphite One receiving further indication of support from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) totaling nearly $900 million for its fully integrated anode supply chain. In Canada, federal funding aims to establish a crucial domestic source of phosphorus, a key ingredient for Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, aligning with a broader G7 effort to build standards-based critical mineral markets.

Indonesia Mandates Annual Nickel Production Quotas, Jolting Global Supply Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, has enforced a major regulatory change by reducing the validity of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to just one year, effective October 3, 2025. This policy shift, which affects nickel and other key minerals, requires all companies to submit new, annual proposals for 2026. The move significantly increases the government's ability to adjust output levels and enforce environmental compliance, but introduces fresh unpredictability for miners and global buyers reliant on Indonesian supply stability.

U.S. EXIM Bank Boosts Graphite One Support to $895 Million Graphite One Inc. has received further indication of support from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) for up to $570 million to develop its Alaska mine, complementing a previous $325 million LOI for its Ohio-based anode manufacturing plant. The total potential EXIM support of $895 million underscores a "whole-of-government" effort to de-risk and accelerate a fully integrated domestic graphite supply chain, directly challenging China’s near-monopoly on anode material production.

Canada Funds Domestic Phosphorus Project to Secure LFP Battery Supply Natural Resources Canada has conditionally approved an investment of up to $735,000 for Arianne Phosphate Inc. to advance the purification of phosphoric acid from its Quebec deposit. If commercialized, this project will establish a crucial Canadian source of phosphorus, a key ingredient for Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries. This investment is part of a larger $80.3 million federal initiative to secure reliable, standards-based supply chains across allied nations, targeting minerals essential for the rapidly growing LFP chemistry market.

G7 Pushes Standards-Based Markets to Counter Geopolitical Risk Building on the Kananaskis Summit, G7 nations have launched a Critical Minerals Action Plan. A core commitment is the development of a roadmap by year-end to promote "standards-based markets" for critical minerals. This initiative seeks to strengthen traceability, ensure labor and anti-corruption standards, and encourage investments in diversified, responsibly sourced production, serving as a coordinated response to market manipulation and supply disruption by non-allied nations.

Nickel Supply Volatility is Now Institutionalized Indonesia's move to annual RKAB quotas means supply is now subject to yearly political review. For EV and battery manufacturers, this institutionalized volatility means contracts reliant on Indonesian nickel carry a significantly higher regulatory and political risk premium, forcing them to adopt more agile supply management and potentially accelerate investment in nickel projects in more stable jurisdictions (e.g., Australia, Canada).

U.S. Government De-Risking Anode Production The nearly $900 million in potential EXIM support for Graphite One illustrates the U.S. government’s willingness to use strategic financial backing to dramatically de-risk critical domestic projects. This direct support bypasses traditional, slow-moving private capital and is crucial for creating a domestic source of anode material. This support accelerates the timeline for U.S. battery independence, setting a precedent for other key mineral supply chains.

Phosphorus: The Next Critical Battery Bottleneck Canada’s investment in phosphorus processing is highly strategic. As global battery production shifts toward cheaper, safer LFP batteries, securing a domestic source of purified phosphoric acid becomes vital for North American battery plants. This preemptive move targets an often-overlooked mineral and reinforces the broader allied strategy: secure the entire value chain, not just the mine sites, to resist geopolitical leverage.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.