444Critical Daily — October 15, 2025

The critical minerals market is in a state of extreme flux, with supply-side policy dominating price action. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a transition from an export ban to a strict quota system for cobalt has caused prices for the battery metal to nearly double since the start of the year, creating an acute supply risk for battery manufacturers. Concurrently, new geological and operational challenges in South America are expanding projected copper production losses at key Chilean mines. Finally, uncertainty around the stability of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is increasing market jitters for developers of domestic battery material projects, threatening to slow the build-out of a secure North American supply chain.

DRC Cobalt Quota System Drives Prices Up Nearly 100% The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has shifted from a complete export ban to a new, restrictive quota system for cobalt products, set to take effect on October 16, 2025. This policy intervention has catalyzed a severe price increase, with cobalt metal prices nearly doubling from under $10 per pound to almost $20 per pound by October 2025. The new quota system imposes strict volumetric limits for the remainder of 2025 and is projected to cap 2026-2027 annual exports at less than half of 2024 production levels. This strategic move reverses years of decline and gives the DRC unprecedented leverage over global supply.

Codelco’s Copper Losses at El Teniente Nearly Double for 2025 Chile’s state-owned copper giant, Codelco, has revised its forecast for production losses at the massive El Teniente mine for 2025 to 48,000 tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 33,000 tonnes. The expanded losses are attributed to ongoing recovery efforts following a fatal rock burst incident in July, with the disruption expected to extend into 2026. The $500 million EBITDA impact, coupled with ongoing geopolitical risks and threats of labor action elsewhere in Chile, solidifies the market’s swing toward a refined copper deficit in 2026.

IRA Policy Instability Creates Headwinds for Domestic Battery Projects The future of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is under scrutiny as new legislative efforts threaten key incentives, including the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit (accelerated expiration to December 31, 2025) and the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit. Analysts warn that this policy uncertainty will change the economics of domestic critical minerals projects, potentially slowing the build-out of a local supply chain. This is especially true for battery materials like nickel and graphite, which currently rely on IRA compliance premiums.

Canadian Miner Leverages AI to Advance High-Value Critical Mineral Targets Quantum Critical Metals (TSXV: LEAP) is preparing for a new drill program on its Québec projects, utilizing Artificial Intelligence (AI) to advance targets for niche critical minerals like Gallium, Rubidium, and Antimony. The company's exploration strategy involves uploading geological data to AI systems to find correlations and locate areas of greatest interest. This technology-first approach focuses on securing high-value, non-battery critical metals that are strategic priorities for North American and allied defense supply chains.

The Cobalt Cost Crisis The DRC's new quota system is a powerful demonstration of resource nationalism and has effectively moved cobalt prices into a sustained, elevated range. For global EV manufacturers and battery producers, the market is now dominated by the high cost and acute scarcity of cobalt intermediates. Procurement strategies must immediately pivot from cost management to assured, compliant supply to avoid production bottlenecks, especially with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) also entering the market with a massive procurement plan.

Copper’s ESG/Operational Risk Premium The continued operational setbacks at Codelco, compounded by labor dispute threats (Antofagasta's Los Pelambres) and geopolitical instability elsewhere, solidify copper's high-risk profile. The market is increasingly pricing in a "risk premium" due to ESG roadblocks, geotechnical complexities at depth, and political uncertainty. This structural supply fragility means even minor incidents can have a massive impact, reinforcing the need for energy infrastructure and EV players to secure long-term contracts.

The Policy-Risk Cliff The legislative threat to the IRA's clean energy incentives (like the Section 45X tax credit) introduces significant regulatory risk into North American project financing. The removal or accelerated phase-out of production credits makes domestic refining and processing projects less competitive compared to established, lower-cost Asian facilities. Project developers and their financial partners must now account for a higher policy-risk factor, which could delay final investment decisions on crucial battery material (Lithium, Graphite, Nickel) processing hubs.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.