444Critical Daily — October 14, 2025

The global critical minerals market has been dominated by escalating geopolitical moves, led by the U.S. Pentagon's massive new drive to secure a $1 billion strategic mineral stockpile to counter China’s export controls. This move has amplified market reaction to Beijing's restrictive policies, causing a rally in non-Chinese rare earth stocks. Concurrently, the copper market is showing extreme volatility, with prices hitting a 17-month high amid supply disruptions, while analysts remain sharply divided over the commodity's near-term outlook.

Pentagon Launches $1 Billion Critical Minerals Stockpile Acquisition The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) is reportedly moving to rapidly acquire up to $1 billion worth of critical minerals to expand the national stockpile, specifically citing China's tightening export controls. Public filings show DLA's intent to purchase significant volumes of minerals like cobalt ($500M), antimony ($245M), tantalum ($100M), and scandium ($45M)—many of which were not previously a high priority for the national reserve. This represents the largest strategic reserve procurement in decades.

https://www.mining.com/pentagon-moves-to-build-1-billion-critical-minerals-stockpile-to-counter-china-report/ MINING.COM

China’s Rare Earth Controls Trigger Australian Stock Rally The fallout from China’s expansion of rare earth export controls (the "FDPR-like" rule) has led to a significant rally in the stocks of established non-Chinese rare earth producers. Australian listed companies saw dramatic gains: Arafura Rare Earths surged 27% to a two-year high, Lynas Rare Earths climbed 8.5%, and Australian Strategic Materials jumped 42%. Investors are betting on a major supply shift and increased Western government support for alternative supply chains.

https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/rare-earth-stocks-surge-geopolitical-2025/ Discovery Alert

Copper Prices Hit 17-Month Peak; Analysts Remain Divided Benchmark LME copper prices briefly touched $11,000 per metric ton last week, reaching their strongest level since May 2024, and have sustained prices near this high, driven by a weak U.S. dollar and a series of mining disruptions in Indonesia and South America. However, the market at LME Week is split: some analysts forecast an imminent surge to $12,000/ton due to a projected 2026 deficit (ICSG: 150kt), while skeptics argue inventory levels, particularly in the U.S., point to sufficient supply and warn that industrial demand may dry up at these high prices.

https://www.mining.com/web/lmeweek-sharp-divide-between-copper-bulls-and-bears-at-industry-gathering/ MINING.COM

U.S. Government Reportedly Pursuing Stake in Greenland REE Project Following the direct investment in Lithium Americas, the U.S. government is reported to be in decisive talks to acquire a direct equity stake in Critical Metals Corp.'s (CRML) Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland. This potential acquisition would further cement the new U.S. strategy of using direct ownership to secure supply chains for the most critical non-Chinese REE sources.

https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/us-government-securing-critical-minerals-2025/#:~:text=In%20October%202025%2C%20the%20US,supply%20chains%20through%20direct%20ownership. Discovery Alert

The Hardening of Industrial Policy The Pentagon's aggressive stockpiling move is a clear signal that the U.S. views mineral supply security as a top-tier national security issue, not just an economic one. By acquiring non-traditional stockpile minerals like Scandium and Antimony, the government is future-proofing its defense and high-tech industrial base against geopolitical risk and Chinese market dominance.

A Tipping Point for Alternative REE Supply The sharp stock rallies among Australian rare earth companies show that the market is officially repricing non-Chinese REE supply risk. China's new export controls are seen as the tipping point that validates the high capital expenditure required for competing mine-to-magnet chains in allied countries, driving capital towards diversification projects.

Copper's Critical Volatility The sharp divide among analysts at LME Week, coupled with sustained high prices, highlights the intense uncertainty in the copper market. While the long-term energy transition demand is bullish, short-term demand weakness from China could quickly deflate prices. This volatility is a major risk factor for infrastructure and EV manufacturers budgeting for the next 18 months.

Scandium — The Pentagon's focus on Scandium, a high-value metal used in advanced aerospace alloys, signals a direct countermeasure to securing military-grade materials.

Copper — The market's price spikes and intense analyst debate show it remains the most volatile and economically consequential metal for the energy transition.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) — The FDPR-like rule has definitively separated the market into Chinese and non-Chinese supply chains, with capital now flowing strongly toward the latter.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.