Summary
Critical minerals supply chain innovation took center stage this week as new biomining technologies promise to extract lithium, cobalt, and rare earths from existing mine waste using engineered microbes—potentially meeting nearly all U.S. critical mineral needs from domestic waste alone. The paradigm shift comes as Indonesia's Chinese-backed nickel industry continues crushing global competition, prices for battery metals remain depressed despite strong demand growth projections, and the U.S. government accelerates mine waste recovery initiatives. Meanwhile, ongoing supply concentration in China and Indonesia raises strategic vulnerabilities as the energy transition demands 4x current mineral volumes by 2035.
Key Points
Biomining Technology Could Extract Critical Minerals from U.S. Mine Waste
Researchers at Cornell University, Colorado School of Mines, and startup Endolith Mining are deploying engineered microorganisms to recover lithium, cobalt, tellurium, and rare earths from mining waste. A study published in Science found that recovering minerals from existing U.S. mine waste could meet nearly all domestic critical mineral needs; just 1% recovery would substantially reduce import reliance.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/engineered-microbes-pull-critical-minerals-from-mining-waste/ Scientific American
https://www.kjzz.org/the-show/2025-10-06/report-recovering-just-1-of-mining-waste-could-reduce-reliance-on-imported-critical-minerals KJZZ
Scale: One year of U.S. mine waste contains enough lithium to power 10 million electric vehicles. Copper mine tailings hold tellurium, cobalt, zinc; coal ash contains lithium, manganese, rare earths. Technology leader Buz Barstow at Cornell: "If we can make biomining work, we can break the monopoly that states like China have on critical metals."
DOE Announces $1 Billion for Critical Minerals Recovery from Industrial Waste
The Department of Energy revealed intent to issue nearly $1 billion in funding opportunities to advance mining, processing, and byproduct recovery technologies across critical minerals supply chains. Programs include $250 million for byproduct recovery at industrial facilities, $135 million for rare earth supply chains, and $40 million for extracting minerals from industrial wastewater.
https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-announces-actions-secure-american-critical-minerals-and-materials-supply Department of Energy
Targets: Rare earth magnets, gallium/germanium for semiconductors, direct lithium extraction, cobalt from nickel projects. Focus on transforming mining waste, coal byproducts, and industrial wastewater into strategic resources.
Interior Department Streamlines Regulations for Mine Waste Critical Mineral Recovery
Secretary Doug Burgum directed the Department of Interior to fast-track federal regulations on recovering critical minerals from mine waste, coal refuse, tailings, and abandoned uranium mines. USGS mapping identified zinc and germanium at Oklahoma's Tar Creek site, tellurium in Utah's Bingham Canyon copper tailings.
https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/department-interior-launches-effort-unlock-critical-minerals-mine-waste Department of Interior
Policy Shift: Mine waste recovery projects now eligible for federal funding. Secretary's Order prioritizes uranium recovery from abandoned mines and directs USGS to inventory all federal mine waste sites with critical mineral potential.
Indonesia's Nickel Domination Crushes Global Competition, Reshapes Cobalt Markets
Indonesia's Chinese-funded nickel industry—producing 89% via mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)—has driven global nickel oversupply, forcing mine closures in Australia and Canada. As second-largest cobalt producer (10% global share, up from 7% in 2023), Indonesia's HPAL projects are growing cobalt output 17% annually while nickel prices remain 20% below 2024 levels.
https://www.mining.com/web/indonesia-and-china-killed-the-nickel-market/ MINING.COM
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/how-global-copper-nickel-markets-will-drive-the-outlook-for-cobalt-in-2025/ Fastmarkets
Impact: Chinese companies invested $30B+ in Indonesia's nickel supply chain. All but three of Indonesia's 25+ planned MHP plants involve Chinese firms. Australian/Canadian nickel-cobalt operations no longer economical. Market remains heavily oversupplied in early 2025 with full-year surplus expected.
Critical Minerals Stuck Between Demand Forecasts and Oversupply Reality
The International Critical Minerals Summit in Bali heard demand for lithium, graphite, nickel, manganese, and cobalt will rise from 3 million tonnes currently to fourfold by 2035. Yet prices remain weak: lithium down 80% since 2023, nickel/cobalt/graphite down 10-20% in 2024. Copper effectively range-bound near 2021 levels despite supply deficit warnings.
https://www.mining.com/web/column-critical-minerals-are-stuck-between-demand-hopes-and-oversupply-reality/ MINING.COM
Disconnect: Policy-driven overcapacity in China (lithium/cobalt refining) and Indonesia (nickel processing) created supply gluts. Investment momentum weakened in 2024—spending up just 5% vs. 14% in 2023. Exploration activity plateaued after 2020-2023 surge.
IEA: Geographic Concentration in Refining Increased, Not Decreased
Despite diversification rhetoric, refining concentration rose from 82% (top 3 nations) in 2020 to 86% in 2024. Some 90% of supply growth came from single suppliers: Indonesia for nickel, China for cobalt/graphite/rare earths. By 2035, top-3 share projected to decline only marginally to 82%—back to 2020 levels.
Bottleneck: When largest supplier and its demand excluded, supplies outside leading producer meet only half of remaining demand in 2035. Battery metals and rare earths supply chains highly vulnerable to disruptions—weather, technical failures, or policy restrictions.
DRC Cobalt Export Ban Extended, Reshaping Black Mass Payables
Democratic Republic of Congo extended its cobalt hydroxide export ban beyond initial June deadline, leaving Chinese refiners uncertain about intermediate supply for remainder of year. DRC accounts for 76% of global cobalt production; China Molybdenum posted 127% surge in cobalt output (84,722 tonnes) in first nine months of 2024 driven by copper expansion.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/metals-and-mining/battery-raw-materials/brm-monthly-market-update-2025/ Fastmarkets
Recycling Impact: Export ban tightening battery recycling economics. Graphite—40% of black mass by weight—contributes little value, creating disposal challenges. Low electrochemical-grade graphite prices make purification for reuse uneconomical; some recyclers may landfill this critical mineral.
Graphite Tariffs Hit 45% as U.S.-China Trade War Intensifies
Section 301 exclusion for graphite anodes eliminated in May 2025, raising U.S. import tariffs on Chinese anodes from 25% to 45% (additional 20% added in Q1 2025). Synthetic graphite supply chain facing uncertainty as Chinese prices near floor levels amid excess supply.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/metals-and-mining/battery-raw-materials/brm-monthly-market-update-2025/ Fastmarkets
Context: China dominates graphite refining. U.S. tariff escalation part of broader critical minerals trade restrictions including rare earths, tungsten, gallium, germanium controls announced by China in recent months.
Why It Matters
Biomining as Game-Changer
If scaled successfully, bio-extraction from waste eliminates need for new mines to meet substantial portion of U.S. critical mineral demand. Technology already proven at Chile's Escondida (world's largest copper mine) using microbial heap leaching. Startups like Endolith Mining and Transition Biomining developing custom microbial solutions for specific ore bodies.
Mine Waste: From Liability to Asset
Centuries of legacy mining left waste piles containing zinc, germanium, tellurium, rare earths, lithium previously deemed uneconomic. Federal policy shift makes recovery projects eligible for funding while streamlining permitting. Strategy could fund ongoing cleanup at abandoned mines while supplying strategic minerals.
Indonesia-China Axis Controls Battery Metals
Chinese investment created Indonesian dominance in nickel (via HPAL) and growing cobalt position (now #2 globally). This isn't market forces—it's industrial policy. China secured feedstock for downstream battery industry while crushing Western competition through oversupply and low prices. Free trade deal under negotiation would give Indonesia access to U.S. IRA tax credits.
Demand Growth Won't Save Prices Near-Term
Despite 4x demand projections by 2035, oversupply keeps prices depressed. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite all down significantly. Investment momentum slowing—real spending growth just 2% in 2024 after inflation adjustment. Projects delayed or cancelled across Australia, Canada, U.S. as economics deteriorate.
Concentration Risk Worsening
Diversification efforts failing. Top-3 supplier share increased, not decreased, from 2020-2024. China's rare earth processing (90%), cobalt refining, graphite; Indonesia's nickel (89% via MHP); DRC's cobalt mining (76%)—all dominant positions. Supply chains vulnerable to single-point failures from policy, weather, technical issues.
Recycling Faces Critical Hurdles
Battery recycling hit graphite disposal problem: 40% of black mass, minimal value, contamination issues. If graphite landfilled, circular economy goals compromised. Need breakthrough in graphite purification economics or alternative uses for recycled graphite.
Watchlist Companies & Entities
Endolith Mining
Denver-based startup engineering microbes for enhanced copper recovery and critical mineral extraction from mine waste. CEO Liz Dennett pioneering bio-heap leaching applications. Homepage: Not publicly available (private startup)
Transition Biomining
Company using microbial DNA analysis to develop custom additives for increased copper recovery. Founder Sasha Milshteyn focused on reducing sulfuric acid costs in biomining. Homepage: Not publicly available (private startup)
Cornell University / Buz Barstow Lab
Leading Microbe-Mineral Atlas project cataloging microorganisms and genes for mining applications. Goal: genetically engineered microorganisms for critical metal extraction. Homepage: https://www.cornell.edu
Colorado School of Mines / Elizabeth Holley
Research on mine waste as critical mineral resource. Published landmark Science study on byproduct recovery potential from U.S. mining operations. Homepage: https://www.mines.edu
China Molybdenum (CMOC) (SHA:603993, OTC: CMCLF)
Major copper-cobalt producer in DRC; posted 127% surge in cobalt output to 84,722 tonnes in first nine months 2024. Homepage: http://www.cmoc.com
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE)
Brazilian mining giant producing nickel, copper, cobalt as byproducts. Facing margin pressure from Indonesian competition and commodity price volatility. Homepage: https://www.vale.com
BHP Group (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP, LSE: BHP)
Global miner with nickel, copper operations; cobalt byproduct. Partnership with KoBold Metals (backed by Gates, Bezos) for AI-driven critical mineral exploration. Homepage: https://www.bhp.com
Glencore plc (LSE: GLEN, OTC: GLNCY)
Switzerland-based mining/trading giant; top global cobalt producer via DRC copper mines. Noted much cobalt output may remain unsold in 2025 due to DRC export restrictions. Homepage: https://www.glencore.com
U.S. Department of Energy / Critical Minerals Program
Coordinating nearly $1B in funding opportunities for mining, processing, byproduct recovery technologies. Homepage: https://www.energy.gov/cmm/critical-minerals-and-materials-program
U.S. Department of Interior / USGS
Mapping mine waste sites, inventorying critical mineral potential, streamlining recovery project permits under Secretary Burgum's directives. Homepage: https://www.doi.gov
USGS: https://www.usgs.gov
Indonesian Government / Chinese Mining Firms
China invested $30B+ in Indonesia's nickel supply chain. Chinese companies control 89% of Indonesia's MHP production, dominating global nickel-cobalt markets.
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Lithium—One year of U.S. mine waste contains enough to power 10 million EVs. Prices down 80% since 2023 despite 30% demand growth in 2024. Market oversupplied; deficits not expected until early 2030s.
Nickel—Indonesia dominates via Chinese-funded HPAL projects. Market heavily oversupplied; Australian/Canadian mines closing. Prices down 20% YoY. Full-year 2025 surplus expected.
Cobalt—DRC produces 76%; Indonesia now #2 (10% share, up from 7%). Export ban reshaping supply. Prices down 10-20% in 2024. Recycling challenged by graphite disposal issues.
Graphite—China dominates refining. U.S. tariffs hit 45% on Chinese anodes. Prices near floor amid excess supply. Recycling faces economics challenge: graphite contributes little black mass value despite 40% weight.
Rare Earths—China controls 90% of processing. October export restrictions expanded to 12 of 17 elements. Biomining shows promise for extraction from coal ash and mine tailings.
Copper—Effectively range-bound despite deficit warnings. Mine waste contains tellurium, cobalt, zinc as byproducts. Biomining proven at Escondida (world's largest copper mine).
Tellurium, Germanium, Zinc—Found in legacy mine waste (Tar Creek, OK; Bingham Canyon, UT). Previously deemed uneconomic; now targets for recovery as U.S. import-dependent.
Action Points
Monitor DOE Funding Opportunities—Nearly $1B across multiple programs (byproduct recovery, rare earths, wastewater extraction). Proposals due this fall. Identify eligible projects and partnerships.
Track Indonesia-U.S. Trade Negotiations—Proposed free trade deal would grant Indonesia access to IRA tax credits, legitimizing Chinese-controlled nickel/cobalt as "domestic" for EV subsidies. Bipartisan opposition in Congress; outcome uncertain.
Follow Biomining Commercialization—Watch for Endolith Mining, Transition Biomining scaling demonstrations. Cornell's Microbe-Mineral Atlas cataloging organisms; genetically engineered microbes in development.
Evaluate Mine Waste Recovery Economics—Federal funding + streamlined permitting changing project viability. Interior Department inventorying federal sites; state geological surveys partnering with USGS.
Assess DRC Cobalt Ban Duration—Export restrictions extended beyond June; no clarity on roadmap. Chinese refiners/miners lobbying for end. Supply uncertainty affecting recycling payables and market structure.
Watch Battery Chemistry Shifts—LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate, no cobalt) batteries now 75% of market in China. NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) falling to 25%. Shift reducing cobalt demand despite EV growth.
Monitor Graphite Recycling Solutions—40% of black mass by weight, minimal value, disposal challenge emerging. Need breakthrough in purification economics or alternative graphite applications.
Track Supply Concentration Metrics—IEA projects only marginal improvement by 2035 (top-3 suppliers: 86% now → 82% in 2035). Watch for policy interventions to accelerate diversification.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment, or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at time of publication. Sources are publicly available.