Summary
The proposed $53 billion merger between Teck Resources and Anglo American PLC cleared a critical hurdle, being deemed cleared on national security grounds by Ottawa. While this removes a major obstacle ahead of the December 9th shareholder vote, the deal still faces a net economic benefit review to secure final Canadian approval. Simultaneously, the global copper supply crisis deepened, with analysts predicting prices could hit $12,000 per tonne due to major production outages and surging demand from the AI and EV sectors. Finally, Ramaco Resources confirmed its role as a key U.S. REE producer, with its CEO providing updates on the Brook Mine and the new national stockpile terminal plans.
Key Points
Teck/Anglo Merger Clears National Security Review, Faces Economic Test
Sources indicate that the Canadian government has allowed the national security review period to lapse without an extension. This move effectively clears the deal on security grounds, despite Teck's substantial critical mineral assets (Copper, Germanium). The transaction, which seeks to create a top-five global copper producer headquartered in Vancouver, now faces the Investment Canada Act's "net economic benefit" review. Shareholders are scheduled to vote on the merger on December 9, 2025.
Copper Supply Crisis Deepens on Major Production Outages
The copper market entered a critical inflection point, with major analysts now predicting prices could reach $12,000 per tonnebefore the end of the year. This bullish forecast is driven by a convergence of demand (AI infrastructure, electrification) and supply-side catastrophe. Recent incidents at major mines—including a mud rush at Grasberg , a rock burst at El Teniente , and flooding at Kamoa-Kakula —have wiped out over half a million tonnes of expected annual production.
Titan Mining Announces Strong Graphite Economics and Expanded EXIM Support
Titan Mining Corporation (TII: NYSE-A) announced positive results from its Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Kilbourne Graphite Project, confirming an after-tax NPV(7%) of $513 million and 37IRR. In parallel, the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) approved an additional $5.5 million non dilutive funding to accelerate the Feasibility Study, alongside a $120 million LOI for project construction. This reinforces Titan's position as a key U.S. supplier of natural flake graphite for EV anodes.
Ramaco CEO Provides Update on U.S. REE Stockpile Terminal
Ramaco Resources Chairman and CEO Randall W. Atkins appeared on Fox Business to provide an update on the company's Brook Mine in Wyoming. The mine, which is developing into a multi-metal complex anchored by coal byproducts, is set to be the first new U.S. Rare Earth Element (REE) mine in over 70 years. The CEO discussed plans to establish the Strategic Critical Minerals Terminal (SCMT) at the site to integrate the REE processing supply chain and potentially anchor a national stockpile.
Why It Matters
Teck's Economic Sovereignty Test
The clearance on national security grounds removes a major risk but shifts the focus entirely to the economic sovereignty test. Ottawa will demand strong, perpetual commitments on Canadian jobs and processing to approve the merger. The outcome will set a precedent for all future foreign acquisitions of Canadian critical mineral assets.
Copper is an Immediate Crisis
The confluence of supply outages and AI/EV demand confirms that the Copper \text{ deficit is no longer a future forecast but an immediate crisis. The magnitude of production losses is fueling analyst predictions of extreme price surges, which will translate into significantly higher costs for all electrification, grid, and defense programs.
Public-Private De-risking is the Model
Titan Mining's positive PEA and expanded funding and direct acceleration funds underscore the successful public-private partnership model for high-priority domestic projects. This combination of robust project economics and subsidized government debt is necessary to overcome the long development timelines and Chinese market pressures facing U.S. graphite producers.
Watchlist Companies
Company / Entity | Context | Homepage / Link |
Teck Resources (TECK) | $\text{\$53B}$ merger subject to final Canadian "net economic benefit" review ahead of the Dec 9 shareholder vote. | |
Anglo American PLC (AAL) | U.K. miner aiming to merge with Teck; must provide final economic commitments to Ottawa. | |
Titan Mining Corp. (TII) | U.S. graphite producer with strong PEA and expanded EXIM funding for its Kilbourne Project. | |
Ramaco Resources (METC) | U.S. REE/Critical Minerals producer developing the Brook Mine and national stockpile terminal (SCMT). | |
Trilogy Metals (TMQ) | Alaska copper/cobalt developer; their Ambler project benefits from rising copper prices and strategic status. | |
ReElement Technologies | U.S. REE refining innovator; partnered on a blockchain initiative for supply chain traceability and price transparency. |
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Copper — Price Shock: Structural supply losses are driving prices toward $12,000 per tonne, immediately inflating costs across all electrification sectors.
Graphite — Domestic Supply: Titan's successful PEA and EXIM backing confirm the U.S. is serious about creating a domestic, non-Chinese anode material source.
M&A — Sovereignty Test: The Teck/Anglo deal outcome will define the limits of foreign ownership and the value of critical mineral processing in Canada.
Action Points
Monitor Teck Shareholder Vote: Closely follow the December 9th shareholder meetings; a positive vote is expected but does not guarantee final Canadian government approval, which remains the key risk.
Model Copper Price Inflation: Manufacturers, grid developers, and defense contractors should immediately model $12,000 per tonne into their capital project budgets for 2026-2027.
Evaluate REE Traceability: Producers should explore integration with digital asset platforms (like the Ramaco/ReElement partnership) to enhance supply chain traceability, a growing requirement for Western defense and automotive buyers.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at the time of publication; sources are publicly available.
444Critical is delivered daily from Trail, British Columbia — a city built on metallurgy, innovation and collaboration — now standing as the operational centre of the North‑American critical‑minerals corridor.