Summary US mineral production value edges up despite 40-60% collapse in battery metals output as oversupply from China depresses cobalt, lithium, and nickel prices. Americas Gold and Silver achieves antimony breakthrough targeting sole US primary production after China export halt. Copper remains elevated at $5.03/lb, up 23.86% year-over-year despite monthly decline. Corporate dividends and strategic pivots signal sector confidence despite price volatility as companies position for anticipated demand recovery through 2025-2029 capacity expansion cycle.
Key Points
US Mineral Production Value Edges Higher Despite Battery Metals Collapse
USGS reported overall US mineral production value increased $1 billion to $106 billion in 2024, driven by record gold and silver prices offsetting sharp declines in battery materials. Cobalt, lithium, and nickel production values fell 40-60% due to oversupply from dominant producers including China, causing domestic mining projects to delay operations or halt processing. Gold production value increased 9% despite quantity decreases, accounting for 11% of total nonfuel mineral production value.
Titan Mining Secures NYSE Listing for Critical Minerals Strategy
Titan Mining Corporation begins NYSE American trading November 20 under ticker "TII" as part of mission to rebuild America's critical minerals supply chain. The company operates zinc concentrate production in upstate New York while developing Kilbourne graphite project targeting first US end-to-end natural flake graphite production in 70 years. The US currently imports 100% of natural graphite with 42% from China, positioning Kilbourne as key domestic source for defense and industrial applications.
Americas Gold and Silver Achieves Antimony Processing Breakthrough
Americas Gold and Silver demonstrated ability to extract over 99% of antimony from copper concentrates using proprietary hydrometallurgical technology at Idaho's Galena Complex. The company engaged with US Government to secure support for domestic antimony production, positioning to become sole primary US antimony supplier after China halted exports in December 2024. The breakthrough transforms antimony from overlooked by-product into significant revenue stream with critical defense applications.
Why It Matters
Rare Earth Boom Reflects Strategic Reality
The stock surge represents market recognition that critical minerals constitute the fourth major commodity boom cycle, following historical patterns of gold, oil, and technology. Unlike previous cycles driven primarily by economic factors, the rare earth boom emerges from strategic competition requiring domestic production capabilities regardless of short-term market fundamentals.
Supply Chain Reconfiguration Accelerates
Battery metals price collapse demonstrates Chinese oversupply strategy while domestic US production contracts, highlighting structural vulnerabilities. Companies achieving technical breakthroughs like antimony processing or securing strategic mineral deposits position for government support and premium pricing as supply chains prioritize security over efficiency.
Corporate Positioning for Recovery Cycle
NYSE listings, dividend increases, and strategic pivots signal management confidence in long-term fundamentals despite current volatility. The 2025-2029 capacity expansion window identified by USGS creates opportunities for companies with permitted projects and government partnerships as Western governments transition from market-based to strategic sourcing.
Watchlist Companies
Company/Entity | Context | Homepage/Link |
|---|---|---|
Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ:CRML) | Up 241% over three months with Greenland rare earth project containing 45% yttrium, 62% dysprosium concentrations | |
NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ:NB) | Surged 300%+ with Elk Creek Project containing largest US terbium and second-largest dysprosium resources | |
Titan Mining (NYSE:TII) | NYSE listing effective November 20, targeting first US natural graphite production in 70 years with Kilbourne project | |
Americas Gold & Silver (NYSE:USAS) | Achieved 99% antimony extraction breakthrough, positioned as sole US primary antimony supplier | |
First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG) | Increased quarterly dividend 8.3% to $0.0052/share, payable November 28, demonstrating sector confidence | |
MP Materials (MP) | Record quarterly NdPr production of 721 metric tons, 51% year-over-year increase with DOD price protection |
Critical Minerals Spotlight
Markets — Boom Cycle: Rare earth stocks surge 300% as markets recognize fourth major commodity boom driven by strategic competition rather than pure economics.
Production — Bifurcation: US domestic battery metals production contracts 40-60% while Chinese oversupply strategy depresses global prices, accelerating supply chain reconfiguration.
Strategy — Security Premium: Companies achieving technical breakthroughs and securing strategic deposits command premium valuations as governments prioritize supply security over market efficiency.
Action Points
Monitor Strategic Positioning: Companies with permitted projects, government partnerships, and technical capabilities positioned for premium valuations as strategic sourcing displaces market-based procurement across critical minerals.
Track Recovery Timing: Watch for signs of Chinese production discipline and Western demand recovery as battery metals approach three-year lows, creating entry opportunities for strategic investors.
Assess Government Support: Evaluate corporate partnerships with DOD, USGS, and allied governments as policy backing becomes essential for project viability amid volatile commodity pricing environment.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not legal, investment or policy advice. Information is believed accurate at the time of publication; sources are publicly available.
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